Uncertainty-Aware Finger Force Estimation for Reliable Box Manipulation

Reliable box manipulation requires successful placement without damage, which depends on maintaining sufficient contact force without excessive loading. We hypothesize that per-finger force feedback improves manipulation reliability relative to open-loop finger commands. To this end, we present Finger External-Force Estimation from Proprioceptive SignaLs (FEEL), an uncertainty-aware residual method that estimates per-finger external force magnitude from proprioceptive histories. Our method combines a calibrated virtual-spring estimate with a residual distribution predicted by a Mixture Density Network (MDN) and requires no dedicated contact sensors during deployment. The estimated force is used for continuous per-finger adaptation, while predictive uncertainty is evaluated as an empirical signal of ambiguity in proprioceptive force estimation. Across ten fingers and contact forces spanning 0–20 N, our method achieves a mean RMSE of 0.251 N, reducing the error by 92.8% relative to the virtual spring and by 9.4% relative to an end-to-end MDN. In box pick-and-place, force adaptation maintains task success at 10/10 and increases both damage-free outcomes and reliability from 7/10 to 10/10. A video demonstrating the proposed method is available at https://anonymous-webpage.pages.dev/.